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Read in journal:The annual MAPIC international exhibition took place in Cannes on November 18-20 of this year. The main reason for the Russian retail real estate community to come to France was to socialize with their global counterparts. Anyway, it took them much time and efforts to find suitable discussion partners. This year, a number of Russian representatives in Cannes went down to all-time low.
What does the client want? How are retailers today? What development plans do they have? These were the questions that the participants of the Eleventh Russian Breakfast tried to answer (the Russian Breakfast was organized on November 19th, 2009, in Majestic Hotel, Cannes, as a part of the MAPIC exhibition).
An expert from ANCOR Real Estate & Construction, ascertained during a round table entitled Managing Change: Efficient Management in the New Environment, that “the real estate and construction labor markets have recovered somewhat from the shock, but the overall situation does remain unstable.”
The office real estate was probably the most affected by the crisis segment of the commercial real estate market. Sharp decreases in demand and rent rates, growing vacancy rates, inability to pay off credit debts – all these factors have resulted in a growing number of frozen projects while many real estate assets became the property of banks. For example, Sberbank is now a co-owner of Capital City project that Capital Group has been building in Moscow-City. VTB has acquired a 51% stake in Sistema-Hals developer company; the bank became the owner of Detsky Mir retail store located in the very center of Moscow and is now the major shareholder (75% minus 1 share) of MC Dynamo that owns a project to build two stadiums and a number of office and retail centers in Petrovsky Park. VneshEconomBank (VEB) has received all real estate assets of Globex bank (the total area of 700,000 sq m), Alfa-Bank acquired two business centers that earlier belonged to Kopernik Group. The banks now create special structures to manage the given assets: Sberbank has established Sberbank-Capital, VTB – VTB Capital, VEB – VEB Invest, etc.
Many office projects were actively developed when the current crisis reached Russia. Because of the new economic reality, developers have corrected their plans, decreased volumes of construction and postponed project inauguration dates until 2009-2010. These are the office projects that entered the real estate market this year. According to analysts at CB Richard Ellis, approximately 1.4 million sq m of office space entered the market in the first three quarters of the year. Another 300,000 sq m is expected to be finished in IV quarter (that is Russia's all time highest volume of construction). As of the end of 2009, the total volume of office premises in Moscow may reach 11 million sq m. As for the properties coming to the market this year, many of them are half-empty. Developers need to flexibly approach tenants and offer favorable terms of lease. As Colliers International experts say, currently property owners use two strategies – either calculate a rent rate for each particular tenant company depending on its importance and leased space, or propose a low rent rate for the first year of lease to then raise it. In addition to that, many property owners offer to rent fully finished premises or to lease them in small blocks. As far as we can judge by tenant requests that Blackwood has received in 2009, one-third of all requests applied to office blocks of 200 sq m and less. CB Richard Ellis analysts draw attention to other concessions that property owners make to attract tenants: rent holidays, no rent indexing, shorter deposit periods (earlier, an average deposit period was 3 months, now – 1-2 months), short-term lease agreements (as for class B office premises, a major part of lease deals is signed for 11 months). Vacancy rates were growing throughout 2009. As of the end of Q3 of the year, the vacancy rate reached 18.9%, according to Jones Lang LaSalle. Vacant spaces generally appear in new projects that were not a success to find their tenants. High vacancy rates also apply to less competitive buildings. Many office premises are offered to sublease, as currently tenants need less space to lease. According to Jones Lang LaSalle, a share of office premises offered for sublease now makes approximately 95,000 sq m. On the other hand, some experts say that the demand for office space has stabilized in the second half of the year. As analysts at CB Richard Ellis estimate, in Q3 2009 the aggregated volume of deals reached 420,000 sq m that significantly exceeds the results of the first half of the year. The growing volumes of deals on the market were stimulated by developers and property owners who started making concessions to tenants in order to fill vacant spaces. They now allow big discounts on rent rates and lease terms. Another reason for the market growth was that some major tenants who initially waited for much lower rent rates have finally signed lease agreements in the second half of the year. According to Jones Lang LaSalle, the quality and type of tenants have been also changing on the market. In 2008, international production companies, banks and financial organizations were the most active tenants in the office segment. Under the crisis conditions, state-owned companies are expanding their market share. As of the end of Q3, the share of Russian tenants was 62%; foreign tenants were leasing 38% of office space. As Blackwood analysts say, rent rates in class A office premises now make $350–700/sq m/year, in class B – $200–500/sq m/year. Purchase prices for class A facilities now make $3,000–5,000/ sq m, in class B - $1,500–2,500/sq m. Rates and prices vary depending on property location and size. In case we do not see further economic downturn, then the office real estate market will preserve the current positive dynamics: the market and investment demand will gradually recover (especially if the prices stay as low as they are now), take up volumes will keep growing while vacancy rates will continue to decrease. Let us hope for the better! Happy New Year! The first year of the recession is ending. The most obvious result – a decrease in personal incomes – should have been painful for the retail real estate segment, which is most dependent on consumer incomes. To what extent the catastrophic prognoses came true and what is expected in the oncoming year are the questions which trouble all the members of the shopping centers market - from households to banking structures.
On the basis of January-October 2009 results, total retail turnover in Russia, according to RosStat, has decreased by 5.7% in comparison with the similar period of 2008, which was 11 trillion 732.3 billion rubles. Taking into consideration that in 2008 retail turnover increased by more than 13% YoY, the current downturn can be considered significant. Income statistics of the Russian population leave much to be desired as well; instead of the previous 12-13% annual increases in real disposable incomes, the January-October 2009 results have shown a 0.4% downturn – which does not lead to optimism among the retailers. Retailers started having problems in 2008, and these increased in 2009 – connected not only with lower consumer demand but also with their high dependence on borrowed funds, which became hard to obtain in the crisis. The retailers being forced out of business and those leaving the market created a significant vacancy rate in the retail real estate market. In November 2009, on average about 8% of quality retail spaces lay vacant (many experts agree with this figure), while prior to the crisis this indicator had not exceeded 1–3% in Russia. Decrease of demand for retail spaces, in its turn, forced owners to meet their tenants halfway. According to Cushman & Wakefield Stiles & Riabokobylko, the average rental rate figure, on the basis of 2009 results, stands at $1100/sq m per year, which is 35% less than the similar rate in 2008 of $1700/sq m (average rental rate for the retail galleries of quality trading centers in Moscow). While the successful retail centers have lost a maximum of 10% from rental prices, buildings of unfavorable location could lose up to 50%. The important pricing trend was the switch in rental rate calculations – basing the new figure as a percentage of total sales turnover or a mixed approach to settlements is one more example of making concessions to tenants. Currently only those objects which have come to a "point of no return" prior to the crisis are being completed. There were many of these, and therefore the new supply coming onto the market in 2009 is similar to the figures achieved in 2008. In 2009, according to Jones Lang LaSalle, new supply will reach 959,000 sq m of GBA and 494,000 sq m of GLA. According to Colliers International, for the end of November 2009, the overall area of quality retail objects stood at 4.617 million sq m, while GLA – at 2.428 million sq m. In estimating market prices of retail objects today, according to Magazin Magazinov in association with CB Richard Ellis, the average capitalization rate of 12% – 13% is used, which is approximately 3% higher than last year’s level. In practice, for each object this capitalization rate figure is different – as each property is evaluated individually. Market members often express the opinion that the retail real estate segment has held out better that the other sectors – like offices and warehouses. Quality retail projects have good chances of obtaining bank financing for construction (for example, if they have a firm agreement with large Western operators regarding future leases). Of course, this is available to just a few lucky ones, but other segments cannot even hope for anything like this. In any case, new projects will not start entering the market any time soon, which could mean the renewal of retail space shortages (as well as rental rates increases) by 2011. This is possible only if the peak of the crisis has already passed – and with the coming New Year we all wish to hope for better things. It seems that the most problematic year in the history of Russia's warehouse real estate market is over. Many developer projects were put on hold, their total number has significantly decreased because of the lack of available financing, the threats that were coming from creditors in regard to debts, and a general drop in tenant demand.
As a rule, only previously started projects were built up this year. According to analysts from Knight Frank, approximately 600,000 sq m of warehouse properties entered the Moscow region warehouse market in 2009. In 2010, another 270,000 sq m of warehouse premises are expected to come to the market. No new warehouse projects have been announced this year. Quite the contrary: many previously announced projects were frozen in Moscow and, especially, in Russia's regions. At the same time, developers of Istra and Krekshino said they would proceed with the new phases of their projects. As experts at Colliers International estimate, unfinished warehouse projects at various development stages are in the shakiest situation today. Developers have little chances to succeed in signing preliminary lease agreements with tenants until the properties are put into operation. In this respect, the outgoing year is not different from the previous one. For the first time in the history of Russia's warehouse real estate, the market demand was higher than the supply. Many retail operators had their goods turnover decreased; some of them put on hold their business expansion plans. All these factors have resulted in a lower demand for logistic operators' services that were the most active market players before the crisis. Today, retail operators do not need as many warehouse spaces as they were initially planning. Moreover, many warehouse tenants have corrected their business development plans; some of them prefer to sublease a part of their premises. The existing in the Moscow region vacancy rate is now 12,4%, according to Jones Lang LaSalle. Property owners are ready to make concessions in order to attract new tenants to their projects. They decrease rent rates and accept alternative payment schemes (less advanced payment periods, lower deposits, longer lease holidays, additional options such as free parking and technical maintenance services, a partial transport and move compensation, etc.). At the same time, the demand for warehouse premises started to recover in the fall of 2009. According to Cushman & Wakefield Stiles & Riabokobylko, more than 200,000 sq m of class A warehouse properties were leased in the Q3 2009 that is more than the aggregated number for the whole H1 2009. Production companies, retail operators and distributors are the major warehouse tenants. Analysts at Jones Lang LaSalle note that the minimum lease terms for quality warehouse premises have shortened: if earlier on agreements were signed for 5-7 years, with the advent of the crisis there have been instances of short-term agreements being signed for 1-3 years. According to Cushman & Wakefield Stiles & Riabokobylko, in Q1 2009 rent rates were corrected by 30%, from $130–140/sq m/year down to $100–110/sq m/year (less VAT and operating costs). The company experts say that rent rates were the same in H2 2009. Many developers hoped to see a growing demand for built-to-suit warehouse properties, developed in accordance with each particular client's needs. Nonetheless, experts from Colliers International say this format is not widely popular yet, as the full development cycle of built-to-suit warehouse facilities is relatively long – about two years. Hence, if a customer makes a decision to enter such projects he should be prepared to secure payment for a future lease agreement. The cost of money nowadays is quite high; that is why many companies are not prepared to make long-term investments. On the other hand, well-known property owners are ready to maximally adopt their speculative project premises to each client's needs. In case we do not see other negative changes on the market, the demand for warehouse properties will gradually recover while vacancy rates will keep decreasing, the experts say. There is little to none new projects developed, and vacant spaces are gradually absorbed by the market. Some analysts estimate that based on the ongoing trend the supply of quality warehouse properties will significantly drop by the end of 2010 when the demand exceeds the supply. The cycle of warehouse project development is about 1.5–2 years. Correspondingly, we can expect new warehouse properties to come to the market no sooner than in H1 2011. The year 2009 was very difficult for the Petersburg real estate market. Some have already christened it as “the worst year in history.” The depth of the fall was different in different segments but problems were common for all. The drop of rental rates, shrinking demand, and credit crunch resulted in the suspension of development projects. At the same time representatives of the business community are consoled by the fact that everything could be worse. Everybody mastered volens nolens the new rules of the game and went on working.
В 2009 год участники петербургского рынка вступили терзаемые сомнениями и страхами. Многие опасения сбылись, но многие и не оправдались. В преддверии Нового года мы попросили наших читателей ответить на три вопроса, рассмотрев последствия кризиса с позитивной точки зрения.
The participants of St. Petersburg market entered the year 2009 torn by doubts and fears. Many fears were justified but many were not. On the New Year Eve we asked our readers to answer three questions and examine the positive aspects of the crisis. Какие ваши опасения не оправдались? What fears proved unjustified? Какие возможности открыл перед вами кризис? What opportunities did the crisis open before you? Чему вы намереваетесь посвятить 2010 год? You’ll devote the year 2010 to… Бороться с кризисом участники рынка практически перестали. Приняв новые правила игры, с кризисом теперь кооперируют и извлекают разнообразные возможности. Однозначно хорошо, что на первый вопрос «Какие заветные желания сбылись у вас в 2009 году?» многим участникам рынка было что ответить.
The market participants almost stopped fighting against the crisis. Having adopted new rules of the game, they cooperate with the crisis and derive new possibilities. It’s definitely good news that many market participants had a lot to say as they answered the first question about their fond desires that came true in 2009. Три вопроса, на которые мы попросили ответить ключевых игроков рынка коммерческой недвижимости: Here are the three questions we asked the key commercial real estate market players: Какие заветные желания сбылись у вас в 2009 году? Which of your fond desires came true in 2009? Как вы сражаетесь с финансовым кризисом? How are you fighting against the financial crisis? 2010 год будет для вас годом… 2010 will be for you the year of… |
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